Bond Market & Recession Indicators
Bond markets can act like a sonometer to detect financial crises before they occur. However, the sonometer cannot detect the underlying cause of recessions, so it is important to be prepared for the next one.
The DXY chart measures the dollar's value against other currencies. In March, it went down due to hawkish rhetoric from the Fed but has since recovered.
One Month Treasury
The one-month treasury trades at around 40 basis points below the Fed's desired floor for overnight rates. This suggests that the market does not believe the bailouts will be effective.